CVNA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Carvana’s strong restructuring and impressive same-day delivery expansion initiatives continue to drive bullish sentiment. Market forecast predicts a 2.24% price rise, bolstered by favorable fundamental improvements.


Bearish Case: Carvana’s enormous debt load poses substantial risks, and high implied volatilities indicate skepticism. Analysts fear overvaluation, making corrections likely as market expectations could realign.


Potential Outcomes: Potential outcomes include:

1) 60% chance Carvana thrives on restructuring gains and efficiency (+ baseline profitability);

2) 35% chance debt and high interest rates strain finances;

3) 5% chance unexpected market re-evaluation correcting stock overvaluation.


Trading Oracle: Deploy short-term bullish credit spreads. Sell near-term $130 strike puts, buy $125 strike puts, taking advantage of high implied volatility with modest positive expectations. Expect 70% probability of success with favorable risk/reward dynamics, leveraging strong Helium edge over market's current sentiment.


June 30, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CVNA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CVNA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CVNA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)





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