DCF Forecast


Bullish Case: The fund's recent stable returns and positive trajectory over the past two years, coupled with favorable performance in credit markets, suggest potential for modest appreciation and reliable income from dividends.


Bearish Case: With a recent selloff by major institutional investors, the likelihood of deteriorating market conditions, and historical underperformance, there's significant downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: Recovery (50%) driven by improving credit market. Flat returns (30%) if credit markets stabilize. Further decline (20%) due to poor macroeconomic conditions or additional selling pressure from institutions.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a Helium short volatility credit spread position with a two-month outlook. Establish the spread with a target high for the short leg at $9.3 and a midpoint low at $8.832. This low-risk, high-reward strategy leverages DCF's stable short-term outlook for a high probability of modest profit.


July 03, 2024


BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Forecast

DCF      BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DCF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.73)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DCF



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.73)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.76)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DCF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.73)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.76)





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