DRN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: DRN's recent upward drift (+18.2% over the past 60 days) suggests positive momentum. Leveraged ETFs see heightened demand amidst easing monetary policies, supporting further growth.


Bearish Case: DRN's historical performance shows significant declines (-66.8% over the past 5 years) and current price volatility supports a continued bearish outlook. High put volume indicates bearish sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. DRN rises 20% (probability: 30%) due to market optimism.

2. DRN remains flat (probability: 50%) as market uncertainties and actual price stagnation persist.

3. DRN falls 15% (probability: 20%) with persistent economic concerns.


Trading Oracle: Consider credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility). Execute the identified bearish short volatility strategy expiring in ~49 days: Sell 2 $9.0 strike call options, buy 3 $10.0 strike call options. Estimated edge is $11 with 80% odds profit. Optimal due to higher put option volume and market sentiment.


June 30, 2024


Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares Forecast

DRN      Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DRN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.31)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DRN



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.21)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.31)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DRN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.31)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)





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