DRV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Recent uptick from low price, Helium implied volatility 5% higher than market, potential upside convexity.


Bearish Case: Historical downtrend, flat volatility term structure, bearish risk 17% higher than bullish risk confirmed by -5.2% drop over past month.


Potential Outcomes: Continuous bearish trend (55%), brief mean reversion (20%), flat movement (25%) within 30 days.


Trading Oracle: Sell a 1-month $40.0/$44.0 call spread (bearish credit), expiring in ~14 days targeting IV skew and decay. Probability of profit: 73%. Strategy returns: 10%. Low risk, high probability, profitable with -$18.4 delta and 2.1 theta.


July 07, 2024


Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares Forecast

DRV      Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DRV



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.27)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.04)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DRV



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.04)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.43)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.66)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DRV



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.27)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.04)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.66)





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