DUOL Forecast


Bullish Case: Duolingo continues to drive growth through product innovation, robust user engagement, and strong financial performance. Analyst upgrades and revenue growth bolster investor confidence.


Bearish Case: The competitive landscape, unresolved AI backlash, and high volatility could disrupt Duolingo's growth, leading to potential downward price adjustments. Compliance issues also pose risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong user and revenue growth: 70%.

2. Data breach fallout: 20%.

3. High volatility impacts stability: 10%. These probabilities reflect ongoing product advancements and external market risks.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish call debit spread strategy expiring Nov 2024, targeting strikes around $190-$210. Term structure shows contango, suggesting short-term price growth. This approach balances high profitability with controlled risk amid current optimism.


July 10, 2024


Duolingo Forecast

DUOL      Duolingo











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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.37)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DUOL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.0)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.37)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.43)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DUOL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.43)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.0)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.37)





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