DV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: DV's strong AI-driven platforms, upcoming Q2 results on July 30, 2024, and strategic partnerships may drive growth, counteracting recent price declines.


Bearish Case: Recent insider selling, high valuation ratios, and skepticism due to past guidance misses could result in further price drops, exacerbated by market volatility.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive Q2 results leading to a price recovery (35%).

2. Further selloff if guidance is missed again (45%).

3. Market reassessment and stabilization (20%). Probabilities align with past performance and market sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish short volatility credit spread expiring ~28 days by selling $22.5 Call and buying $25 Call options. This has a high probability-of-profit (~79%), with positive edge and favorable risk-reward dynamics given the current volatility and market skepticism.


July 23, 2024


DoubleVerify Forecast

DV      DoubleVerify











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.42)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.53)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.26)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.53)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.42)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.53)





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