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EBS Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Anticipated FDA approvals and recent government contracts may drive EBS stock upwards. High call option volume and a positive forecast suggest investor confidence, potentially resulting in increased stock prices in the coming months.



Bearish Case: Continued operational challenges and past regulatory scrutiny could hinder EBS recovery. The significantly low price return historical data indicates market skepticism and potential for further declines if operational issues persist.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of successful product launches driving prices up 50%.

2. 40% probability of operational setbacks leading to a 20% drop.

3. 20% likelihood of acquisition by a larger firm boosting stock near-term.

4. 10% chance of a regulatory setback causing a severe price drop.



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October 20, 2024


Emergent Biosolutions Forecast

EBS        Emergent Biosolutions

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EBS


LHX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LHX  L3Harris (0.89)


LNTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNTH  Lantheus (0.89)


GLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLW  Corning (0.88)


TSEM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSEM  Tower Semiconductor (0.88)


KMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KMI  Kinder Morgan (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EBS


DAWN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAWN  Day One Biopharmaceuticals (0.0)


HAE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAE  Haemonetics (-0.01)


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (-0.01)


ZTS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZTS  Zoetis (0.01)


RCUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCUS  Arcus Biosciences (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EBS


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.82)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.83)


TXG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXG  10x Genomics (-0.83)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)







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