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EC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: EC's price shows a strong mean reversion tendency and potential for rebound due to undervaluation, evidenced by a 33% increase over 90 days and rising call option volume indicating investor optimism.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and regulatory hurdles could pressure EC's price downwards, coupled with high implied volatility and put option activity, suggesting market uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Market downturn (50% - -15%).

2. Positive earnings (30% - +15%).

3. Regulatory breakthroughs (20% - +10%).

4. Geopolitical easing (10% - +12%).

Trading Oracle: A Bearish Long Volatility strategy is optimal due to EC's high implied volatility and geopolitical risk. Positioning with OOTM put options captures potential downturn and profit from volatility spikes, factoring in a probable negative drift.

March 30, 2025

Ecopetrol SA Forecast

EC Ecopetrol SA

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EC

SHEL Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (0.86)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (0.8)

WU Western Union (0.8)

DVN Devon Energy (0.77)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EC

KO Coca-Cola (-0.0)

UUUU Energy Fuels (0.01)

ULTA Ulta Beauty (-0.02)

HCA HCA Healthcare (-0.03)

BB BlackBerry (-0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EC

RY Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.86)

ACM AECOM (-0.87)

NOW ServiceNow (-0.88)

COLB Columbia Banking System (-0.88)

QTWO Q2 (-0.89)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.