LYFT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Despite significant volatility, Lyft may benefit from lower wait times and pricing improvements per the recent analyst briefing. Collaborative efforts with New York City's Taxi and Limousine Commission could stabilize driver relations.


Bearish Case: High regulatory risk and ongoing lawsuits, combined with competition from autonomous vehicles, pose significant threats to Lyft's financial stability. Historical returns show persistent negative trends.


Potential Outcomes: 30% chance Lyft's regulatory adaptations improve market share. 40% chance financial struggles due to legal and competitive pressures. 30% chance of status quo with minor fluctuations.


Trading Oracle: Opt for bullish short volatility trades. Sell $13.0 strike put and buy $12.0 strike put, expiring in ~51 days. This Helium model shows a 75% profit probability. Focus on leveraging implied volatility edges and market dip recoveries for optimal risk-reward.


July 23, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LYFT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LYFT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LYFT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)





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