Bullish Case: Increased ETF inflows fueled by recovering European economic fundamentals and positive corporate earnings reports could lift EEA prices. Historical data shows strong returns over holding periods beyond one year, indicating a bullish trend if recovery takes hold.

Bearish Case: Continued political instability in France coupled with anticipated economic slowdowns and potential tariff conflicts could pressurize EEA prices. Short-term volatility may persist as market sentiment sours due to these uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes:

• Recovery in European economic growth: 40%
• Political stability in France: 20%
• Market corrections: 25%
• High inflation leading to tighter monetary policy: 15%

Trading Oracle: Implement a cautious bullish strategy utilizing credit spreads. Sell $8.50 calls and buy $9.00 calls on EEA, targeting December 2025 expiration. This captures potential upside from rebound while managing downside risks amidst market volatility, aiming for a favorable risk/reward profile.

December 15, 2024