HPK Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Insider buying, operational cost reductions, and mean-reverting price suggest HPK could trend upwards.


Bearish Case: High historical volatility, low analyst expectation, and insider selling point to bearish sentiment despite recent improvements.


Potential Outcomes: 70% chance of bearish continuation due to high volatility and low mean-reversion. 30% chance of bullish reversal supported by insider buying and cost cutting.


Trading Oracle: Given the higher implied volatility, adopt a bearish debit spread strategy. Opt for a put debit spread targeting October 2024 options with a $12.50 strike. This aligns with historical volatility trends and current market sentiment, offering high reward:risk and positive edge.


June 27, 2024


HighPeak Energy Forecast

HPK      HighPeak Energy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HPK



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.33)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HPK



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.22)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.27)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.33)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HPK



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.27)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.33)





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