EFT Forecast


Bullish Case: EFT's recent positive trajectory (+14.1% YOY) and strong dividend declarations could attract new investors, suggesting a potential rally. The completion of the tender offer may also reduce shares available, pushing prices higher.


Bearish Case: Persistent underperformance and mean-reverting historical data indicate an ongoing struggle for EFT. If the tender offer is under-subscribed, it may reflect negative investor sentiment, further pressuring the stock.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong dividend paying stocks attract new investors (60%);

2. Successful tender offer boosts share price (70%);

3. Ongoing negative market perceptions lead to price drop (30%);

4. Historical trend indicates high chance of mean reversion leading to declines (20%).


Trading Oracle: Consider employing bear call spreads at $14 to capitalize on potential mean reversion and mitigate risk. This strategy provides high reward-to-risk ratio with minimal upside exposure, especially as sentiment remains mixed. Outlook: bearish to neutral for the next 1-2 months.


July 25, 2024


Eaton Vance Floating-Rate Income Forecast

EFT      Eaton Vance Floating-Rate Income











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EFT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EFT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.79)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EFT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.79)





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