EL Forecast




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Long-term brand strength and emerging markets growth prospects leverage Estee Lauder's recovery potential.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility, persistent negative sentiment and economic headwinds suggest continued price pressure.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery (30%): Consumer spending rebound.

2. Ongoing decline (50%): Sustained downturn.

3. Volatility spike (20%): Market disruptions.




Trading Oracle: Focus on bearish credit spreads due to elevated volatility and negative sentiment. Sell May $85/$90 call spreads to capitalize on continued downtrend, while hedging with long $75 puts. Short duration for higher probability of profit.



December 24, 2024


Estee Lauder Cos. Forecast

EL        Estee Lauder Cos.











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