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EL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: EL's strong brand portfolio and potential recovery in luxury markets signal a possibility for recovery. Elevated implied volatility suggests that the market anticipates a significant price movement, possibly upward.

Bearish Case: Continued economic headwinds and past declines suggest that EL might continue its bearish trend. High short-term implied volatility reflects market concerns about prolonged instability.

Potential Outcomes: 1. Recovery (35%): Potential upside from brand strength.

2. Stability/Minor Recovery (20%): Limited growth if economic conditions improve.

3. Continued Decline (45%): Ongoing pressures may sustain downtrend.

April 17, 2025

Estee Lauder Cos. Forecast

EL Estee Lauder Cos.

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EL

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.01)

VTRS Viatris (-0.01)

DKS Dicks Sporting Goods (0.02)

ROIV Roivant Sciences (-0.02)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EL

DFS Discover Financial Services (-0.8)

CLBT Cellebrite DI (-0.81)

CHWY Chewy (-0.82)

RKLB Rocket Lab USA (-0.83)

JPM JPMorgan Chase (-0.83)

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