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EL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: EL's strong brand portfolio and potential recovery in luxury markets signal a possibility for recovery. Elevated implied volatility suggests that the market anticipates a significant price movement, possibly upward.

Bearish Case: Continued economic headwinds and past declines suggest that EL might continue its bearish trend. High short-term implied volatility reflects market concerns about prolonged instability.

Potential Outcomes: 1. Recovery (35%): Potential upside from brand strength.

2. Stability/Minor Recovery (20%): Limited growth if economic conditions improve.

3. Continued Decline (45%): Ongoing pressures may sustain downtrend.

April 17, 2025

Estee Lauder Cos. Forecast

EL Estee Lauder Cos.

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EL

XRX Xerox (0.95)

COTY Coty (0.94)

XRAY DENTSPLY Sirona (0.93)

STM New York Shares (0.9)

ASH Ashland (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EL

HSIC Henry Schein (-0.01)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.01)

MOD Modine Manufacturing (0.01)

DDOG Datadog (0.01)

TAL TAL Education (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EL

AON Aon plc. - (-0.85)

OUNZ VanEck Merk Gold (-0.85)

LRN Stride (-0.85)

FOXA Fox Corporation - (-0.86)

TIPT Tiptree (-0.87)

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