EL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Brand strength and innovation may drive recovery in key markets, particularly if strategic shifts align with consumer trends, countering mean-reverting price action.




Bearish Case: High current volatility, backwardation, and significant historical declines forecast continued bearish momentum, exacerbated by macroeconomic pressures in core markets.




Potential Outcomes: Outcome 1: Continued Decline (65%) - Persistent price drop. Outcome 2: Short-term Rebound (20%) - Possible recovery from strategic changes. Outcome 3: Volatility Spike (15%) - Increased uncertainty impacts price.



March 14, 2025


Estee Lauder Cos. Forecast

EL        Estee Lauder Cos.











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