EL Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bullish Case: Estee Lauder's long-term volatility surface shows pockets of significant gains, indicating potential for a strong rebound.

Bearish Case: With the implied volatility elevated in the short term, Estee Lauder’s bearish momentum is likely to continue, as suggested by historical performance and consistent underperformance.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Short-term decline (55%): Continues given consistent underperformance.

2. Volatility spike (30%): Market uncertainty increases options activity.

3. Possible rebound (15%): Long-term recovery potential noted.

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June 19, 2024

Estee Lauder Cos. Forecast

EL      Estee Lauder Cos.

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