Bullish Case: Increased dividend payment and positive ratings from Barclays [Yahoo, Market Watch] as well as promising biotechnologies in AbbVie's pipeline could drive growth in stock prices [Yahoo].


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Bearish Case: Multiple challenges like lowered revenue expectations due to new US Medicare prices, over 100 patents being challenged by FTC, and competition for AbbVie's blockbuster drug, Humira, could put pressure on the stock price [seekingalpha.com, Endpoints, fool.com, Reuters].


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Takeaway: While AbbVie exhibits potential growth due to their promising drug portfolio and strong dividend payouts, their future is marred with uncertainties due to FTC's patent challenges and increased competition for their blockbuster drug, Humira [seekingalpha.com, Endpoints, fool.com, Yahoo, Reuters, Market Watch, Yahoo].


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Potential Outcomes:

1. Dividend payout continues to drive investment with a 60% chance, driven by AbbVie's reputation as a dividend aristocrat, which may attract income-focused investors [Yahoo, Market Watch].

2. Stock suffers due to FTC patent challenges with a 30% probability. Multiple patents being under question could potentially lower investor confidence causing sell-offs [seekingalpha.com, Endpoints].

3. Increase in stock due to a robust pipeline of new drugs with a 40% chance, based on numerous new drugs in AbbVie's portfolio that could drive increased revenues [Yahoo].

4. Loss in market share for Humira to rivals leading to dip in stock price with a 20% probability, attributable to the introduction of more than half a dozen almost identical products in recent times [fool.com, Yahoo].

5. A 50% chance that the HIV type-1 market growth could lead to increased revenues for AbbVie, as they are one of the companies developing therapies for HIV type-1 [Yahoo].


November 14, 2023


Abbvie Forecast

[ABBV]  Abbvie
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)



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