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ABBV Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AbbVie’s strong pipeline, including Skyrizi and Rinvoq, provides robust offset to Humira's decline. Recent acquisitions and successful trials bolster growth potential.

Bearish Case: Humira's biosimilar competition and high R&D costs continue to pressure revenues. Legal challenges and the Cerevel setback elevate financial risks.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance: New drug approvals boost stock price significantly.
30% chance: Humira's sales decline affects financial stability.
10% chance: Legal issues impact market confidence.

Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish short-term credit spread: sell $170 puts and buy $165 puts expiring in ~30 days. High profit probability due to current volatility backwardation and strong sentiment indicators, leveraging Helium's positive edge.

January 23, 2025

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ABBV Abbvie

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