ELAN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ELAN's recent increase in call option volume and a 3.9% price rise over the past month, alongside lower implied volatility, suggest a rebound potential.




Bearish Case: Historical underperformance, a mean-reverting trend, and backwardated volatility term structure point to continued challenges and potential declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Price rise on innovation and partnerships (30%).
  • Stability due to mixed signals (45%).
  • Continued decline from market challenges (25%).




Trading Oracle: Engage in a cautious straddle strategy. Buy both call and put options at $13.50 expiring in 60 days. This leverages ELAN's unpredictable movements and mean-reverting nature to capture profit from volatility.



January 30, 2025


Elanco Animal Health Forecast

ELAN        Elanco Animal Health











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