EPC Forecast


Bullish Case: EPC's mean-reverting historical price action, significant institutional ownership, and dividend stability indicate potential for steady gains. Helium's lower implied volatility vs. market suggests limited risk, supporting bullish credit spreads.


Bearish Case: EPC's flat near-term IV structure, high volatility for OTM puts/calls, and marginal earnings growth signal potential downside. Bearish spreads could benefit as mean reversion restrains upward movement.


Potential Outcomes: Earnings improvement continuity (35%), mean reversion to lower price (30%), flat trading (25%), sharp sell-off (10%). Estimated probabilities are based on IV term structure and historical price behavior.


Trading Oracle: Deploy bearish vertical call spreads expiring Dec 2024, targeting $45 as upper limit. Given expected high IV drop and EPC's mean reversion, short volatility strategy offers high reward:risk with stable profitability. Mid-term outlook: Bearish.


July 21, 2024


Edgewell Personal Care Forecast

EPC      Edgewell Personal Care











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EPC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EPC



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EPC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.34)





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