EPR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: EPR Properties offers stable, high dividends and has seen a steady increase in stock price recently. The company's strategic shift towards high-quality experiential properties and ongoing portfolio optimization indicate substantial future growth potential despite broader market uncertainty.


Bearish Case: EPR faces significant risks from cinema sector headwinds, economic downturns, and potential tenant bankruptcies. Current low implied volatility suggests limited near-term price movement, and any further macroeconomic pressures could result in sustained underperformance.


Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of a 10-15% rise driven by dividend continuity and market re-evaluation; 35% chance of a 10-15% decline due to sector-specific challenges and broader economic strains; 30% chance of stable prices owing to mixed market dynamics.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish long volatility strategy: buy the $40 put and sell the $35 put expiring on 10/18/2024. This captures downside potential with a high reward-to-risk ratio, leveraging current sector dynamics and low implied volatility. This strategy aligns with the anticipated sector challenges and the market's flat implied volatility outlook.


July 16, 2024


EPR Properties Forecast

EPR      EPR Properties











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.63)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EPR



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.63)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EPR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.46)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.63)





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