Bullish Case: Chord Energy acquisition indicates industry confidence in ERF, signaling potential for increased efficiency, production, and higher shareholder returns, with ERF’s price appreciating significantly recently.


Bearish Case: Potential legal challenges to the acquisition instill uncertainty. Mean-reverting historical price action and currently flat implied volatility suggest limited upside, warning of a possible retreat from recent highs.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Acquisition smooths over, sharing synergy boosts ERF (60%).

2) Legal issues impede deal, triggering sell-off (30%).

3) Market volatility influences sector unpredictably (10%).


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April 09, 2024


Enerplus Forecast

ERF        Enerplus
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with ERF



OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [OVV]  Ovintiv (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XLE]  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.92)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XOP]  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.92)


MTDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MTDR]  Matador Resources (0.92)


USO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [USO]  United States Commodity Funds (0.89)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to ERF



DPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DPST]  Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.0)


SII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SII]  Sprott (-0.0)


DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DFS]  Discover Financial Services (0.0)


NTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [NTR]  Nutrien (0.0)


WING Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [WING]  Wingstop (0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against ERF



PLNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PLNT]  Planet Fitness (-0.74)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XEL]  Xcel Energy (-0.76)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CNXC]  Concentrix (-0.77)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ERY]  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.91)


DRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DRIP]  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.92)





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