XOP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: XOP trading near support ($146.78), calls high volume, and modest historical gains (+18.8% YoY) suggest bullish setup. Favorable AI model and bullish implied risk.


Bearish Case: Flat term structure, Helium higher vol forecast, historical price decline (-3.9% past 90 days), and XOP's correlation pattern present a strong bearish view.


Potential Outcomes: 55% XOP rises to $155 (AI alignment, call interest), 35% declines to $140 (historical downturn), 10% stagnates (flat vol curve).


Trading Oracle: Deploy bearish short volatility strategy. Sell 3 $147 call, buy 8 $151 call expiring 11 days. Market edge $33, Helium edge $48. Attractive bear risk, 75% profit chance.


June 25, 2024


SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Forecast

XOP      SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XOP



ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.97)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.97)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.93)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.91)


MTDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTDR  Matador Resources (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XOP



CFR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFR  Cullen Frost Bankers (-0.0)


APD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APD  Air Products & Chemicals (-0.0)


BSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSY  Bentley Systems (-0.0)


EWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Hong Kong (-0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XOP



DAVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAVA  Endava plc (-0.7)


DT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DT  Dynatrace (-0.73)


DKL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKL  Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (-0.76)


SOXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOXX  BTC iShares PHLX Semicond (-0.76)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.82)





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