ETNB Forecast


Bullish Case: ETNB Phase III trial results appear promising for pegozafermin, with regulatory advantages (PRIME status) and a large potential market for MASH and SHTG treatments. Current implied volatilities indicate significant market anticipation.


Bearish Case: ETNB faces high competition, particularly from alternatives like Rezdiffra. The current backwardation in the term structure indicates elevated uncertainty and possible adverse expectations.


Potential Outcomes: 60% rally on positive Phase III; 25% decline due to negative outcomes or regulatory hurdles; 15% steady state. Estimated using recent predictive accuracy and updated market reactions.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bull call spread by buying ETNB 09/2024 10.00 C and selling 09/2024 15.00 C. This captures high implied volatility and potential upside while mitigating risk. Expect increased volatility around trial results.


July 19, 2024


89bio Forecast

ETNB      89bio











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ETNB



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.16)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ETNB



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.16)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ETNB



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.16)





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