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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong bullish sentiment surrounding EWG, driven by stabilizing economic indicators post-elections, could push prices up to $34. Historical returns support this upward trend, with likelihood indicating a favorable recovery for investors.



Bearish Case: Significant market uncertainty, reflected in high put volumes and elevated implied volatility levels, suggests a bearish outlook, with a potential decline towards $28 as macroeconomic risks remain prominent.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1) Price rises to $34 (25% chance) as sentiment stabilizes.
  • 2) Price drops to $28 (40% chance) due to volatility and uncertainty.
  • 3) Range-bound trading around $31 (35% chance). Interest rates and geopolitical developments may influence these moves.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish debit spread using EWG 01/17/2025 30.00 P and 31.00 P. This strategy provides a high reward:risk profile at low cost, given elevated implied volatility. Target a profit around anticipated price movements while protecting against downside risk.


November 24, 2024


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