FBIO Forecast


Bullish Case: FBIO's promising portfolio and recent trend upward, accelerated by imminent FDA decisions and PDUFA dates, offers substantial upside. The preferred stock dividend pause maintains capital flexibility, crucial for advancing key pipeline assets.


Bearish Case: FBIO's ongoing dilution, high debt levels, and historical volatility pose significant downside risks. Regulatory setbacks or failure in upcoming clinical trials could further depress the stock price, despite potential catalysts.


Potential Outcomes:

1. FDA approvals for DFD-29, cosibelimab (45%) drive stock higher.

2. Continued dilution or trial setbacks (35%) push stock down.

3. Mixed results with temporary volatility and slight appreciation (20%).


Trading Oracle: Enter long debit spreads on FBIO $2.50 calls expiring in January 2025. High volatility and imminent FDA decisions make this a bullish, high-reward strategy aligning with expected volatility spikes. Mitigate risk with a time horizon of 6-12 months.


July 16, 2024


Fortress Biotech Forecast

FBIO      Fortress Biotech











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FBIO



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.1)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.13)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FBIO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.1)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.13)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.31)





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