FCFS Forecast


Bullish Case: FCFS shows a consistent historical positive return likelihood over holding periods and a lower near-term implied volatility. Stable earnings growth and favorable market conditions suggest a bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility, recent insider selling, and a mean-reverting price action historically point to potential downside risks. Additionally, low trading volume and backwardation indicate market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued mean reversion, 30% chance.

2. Moderate earnings growth driving prices higher, 30% chance.

3. Market downturn reducing prices, 25% chance.

4. Stable prices with limited movement, 15% chance.


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May 21, 2024


FirstCash Forecast

FCFS        FirstCash
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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ALL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALL  Allstate (0.95)


GEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEO  Geo Group (0.94)


CRWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRWD  Crowdstrike (0.91)


CRBG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRBG  SAFG Retirement Services (0.91)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.91)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to FCFS



MT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MT  New York Shares (0.0)


BNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNS  Bank Of Nova Scotia (-0.0)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (-0.0)


FTDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTDR  Frontdoor (-0.0)


NCLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NCLH  Norwegian Cruise Line (0.01)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against FCFS



MAXN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAXN  Maxeon Solar (-0.9)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.91)


PRTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRTA  Prothena (-0.91)


PLL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLL  Piedmont Lithium (-0.91)


EXTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXTR  Extreme Networks (-0.92)





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