FCFS Forecast


Bullish Case: FirstCash's historical return likelihood and stable price suggest moderate growth. High insider ownership and active option trading imply sustained interest, possibly signaling a rebound.


Bearish Case: Ongoing insider selling, backwardation, and stabilization in implied volatility reflect potential downside risks. Low AI forecast accuracy and significant recent price drops may deter investor confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate growth driven by historical trends and insider alignment (40%).

2. Further decline due to insider selling and low forecast accuracy (35%).

3. Stable or flat movement reflecting market uncertainty (25%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a short-term bearish debit spread. Buy FCFS 110.00 Puts (8/16/24) and sell FCFS 100.00 Puts. Term structure implies short-term downward pressure, optimizing reward:risk.


July 17, 2024


FirstCash Forecast

FCFS      FirstCash











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FCFS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FCFS



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FCFS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)





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