FDL Forecast


Bullish Case: FDL options show relatively low implied volatility, indicating stability. Historical returns highlight a high probability of positive returns, supported by its consistent dividend payments.


Bearish Case: FDL’s mean reversion trend poses risks if the market corrects. The current slightly elevated implied volatility suggests potential market instability in the near term.


Potential Outcomes: FDL price may remain stable (70% probability) due to its mean-reverting nature and dividend-driven investor base. Moderate upside of 5-10% (20%), downside of 5-10% (10%) possible if market sentiment shifts significantly.


Trading Oracle: Sell FDL August 38 Call options, capturing high implied volatility and premium decay. Position credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) to capture potential price stability, benefiting from volatility contraction and premium erosion. Hold till August expiration for optimal profit.


July 10, 2024


First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Forecast

FDL      First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FDL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FDL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FDL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.7)


FDL News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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