FIGS Forecast


Bullish Case: If Figs successfully penetrates new markets and cuts operational costs, the potential for revenue growth and margin improvements could drive a positive price return.


Bearish Case: Challenges in market expansion, stagnant growth, and a high valuation increase the risk of further price declines and underperformance relative to peers.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful international expansion (20%).

2. Operational inefficiencies affect margins (65%).

3. Market saturation impacts growth (45%).

4. Earnings exceed expectations due to cost cuts (30%).

5. Stock price declines due to valuation contraction (70%).


Trading Oracle: Engage in bearish debit spreads targeting January 2025 $5 Puts. FIGS's high implied volatility and historical return trends support a bullish strategy but focus on a short-term bearish outlook, given current flat trends and Helium trades data. High reward:risk, positive edge.


July 19, 2024


Figs Forecast

FIGS      Figs











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FIGS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.76)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.61)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.65)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FIGS



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.61)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.65)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.76)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FIGS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.76)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.61)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.65)





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