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FMF Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: FMF's potential for positive long-term returns is emphasized by historical data suggesting increased returns over extended holding periods, especially as geopolitical tensions ease and economic conditions stabilize.



Bearish Case: High fees, complexity of futures trading, and FMF's recent flat performance highlight concerns. The past decline and skepticism regarding its consistent value against traditional investments raise potential risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Military aid boosts FMF (+40%) aligning with past predictions.

2. Economic uncertainties drive sideways movement (+35%).

3. Geopolitical tensions cause decline (-25%).



Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) as historical data shows limited downside. Target near-term stability of 3-6 months. Key geopolitical and economic trends suggest more stabilization ahead, providing high reward:risk.


January 23, 2025


First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Forecast

FMF        First Trust Managed Futures Strategy

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FMF


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.85)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.82)


ENTG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENTG  Entegris (0.82)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.78)


PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMF


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.0)


PEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEP  Pepsico (-0.02)


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (0.02)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.02)


IAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAC  IAC InterActiveCorp. (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMF


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (-0.79)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.8)


BOIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOIL  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.8)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.81)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.81)







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