FMF Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: FMF's historical data shows improved returns over longer holding periods, indicating resilience. Sentiment is cautiously optimistic about managed futures during volatile markets.




Bearish Case: FMF's recent flat performance and declining returns over short periods pose risks. Social sentiment highlights concerns about fees and strategy complexity.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. U.S. military aid boosts FMF (35%) - Continued geopolitical support might enhance managed futures' appeal.
  2. Economic uncertainty causes stagnation (40%) - Unpredictable macro factors could lead to flat performance.
  3. Geopolitical tensions cause declines (25%) - Heightened risk could deter investment.



April 11, 2025


First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Forecast

FMF        First Trust Managed Futures Strategy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FMF



NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (0.88)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.86)


MEOH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MEOH  Methanex (0.85)


HXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HXL  Hexcel (0.81)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMF



MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (0.02)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.02)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.02)


CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (-0.03)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMF



FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (-0.76)


ADC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADC  Agree Realty (-0.79)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (-0.81)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.85)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.86)









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