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FMF Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: FMF's historical data shows improved returns over longer holding periods, indicating resilience. Sentiment is cautiously optimistic about managed futures during volatile markets.



Bearish Case: FMF's recent flat performance and declining returns over short periods pose risks. Social sentiment highlights concerns about fees and strategy complexity.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. U.S. military aid boosts FMF (35%) - Continued geopolitical support might enhance managed futures' appeal.
  2. Economic uncertainty causes stagnation (40%) - Unpredictable macro factors could lead to flat performance.
  3. Geopolitical tensions cause declines (25%) - Heightened risk could deter investment.


April 11, 2025


First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Forecast

FMF        First Trust Managed Futures Strategy

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FMF


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (0.88)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.86)


MEOH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MEOH  Methanex (0.85)


HXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HXL  Hexcel (0.81)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMF


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (0.02)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.02)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.02)


CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (-0.03)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMF


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (-0.76)


ADC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADC  Agree Realty (-0.79)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (-0.81)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.85)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.86)







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