FNA Forecast


Bullish Case: Given the historical FNA price return surface, statistically significant positive returns are more likely at longer holding periods. Technological advancements in FNA techniques and new trials, like the one investigating Donafenib, could drive long-term growth [BMJ].


Bearish Case: The recent flat price action coupled with significant declines from previous months indicates potential continuing downtrend. The overreliance on AI predictions, which have historically shown lower correlation with realized prices, adds to this negative outlook [Helium][Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful trials and technological advancements in FNA techniques could drive a 30% price increase (30% chance) [BMJ][NCBI][sciencebusiness.net].

2. Stagnant or negative growth due to flat price action and low AI prediction correlation could lead to a 20% decline (40% chance) [Helium][Helium].

3. Regulatory developments or market shifts could cause neutral movement keeping the price around the current level (30% chance) [natlawreview.com].


Trading Oracle: Implement Helium short volatility strategy with a credit spread focusing on short-dated options (7/19/2024 and 8/16/2024) C7.50 strike, given bearish short-term outlook. High IV indicates premium rich options with time decay advantage. Enter at $6.84 with expectation of neutral-to-slight down movement within 1 month.


June 30, 2024


Paragon 28 Forecast

FNA      Paragon 28











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