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FPI Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: FPI's potential tech-driven improvements and growing agricultural demand may drive prices higher. Recent historical returns, particularly over longer holdings, favor positive growth, suggesting a rebound.



Bearish Case: Regulatory risks surrounding foreign ownership and environmental concerns may stifle FPI's growth. High volatility and market skepticism further pose significant downside risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of appreciation driven by tech and demand.
  • 30% chance of regulatory constraints hindering growth.
  • 10% chance of extreme weather damaging productivity.



Trading Oracle: Given current implied volatility (up to 492% in puts), consider long debit spreads like FPI 12.50 C (expiration 12/20/2024). Target a moderate bullish stance to capture potential price recovery while minimizing risk. This strategy balances high volatility with an upward outlook.


November 23, 2024


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FPI        Farmland

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IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (0.66)


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (0.63)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.63)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FPI


NNDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NNDM  Nano Dimension Ltd (0.0)


VNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNO  Vornado Realty (0.01)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.01)


IVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVR  Invesco Mortgage (-0.01)


INCY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INCY  Incyte (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FPI


SA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SA  Seabridge Gold (-0.6)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (-0.61)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.62)


AVTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVTR  Avantor (-0.78)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.82)







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