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FPI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Technological advancements and stable food demand offer underlying support, with FPI's price return stability reinforcing potential for modest appreciation.

Bearish Case: Environmental policies and regulatory changes pose significant downside risks, compounded by current flat market action and unclear sentiment from FPI trading volumes.

Potential Outcomes: 60% stable demand supports growth; 30% policy shifts impede FPI; 10% extreme weather reduces productivity.

Trading Oracle: Capitalize on relatively stable volatility by employing long debit spreads on the FPI 12.50 C options expiring 08/15/2025. Focus on a medium-term moderate bullish view, given current volatility and stable demand. High implied volatility offers a positive edge with a balanced risk-reward.

January 04, 2025

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FPI Farmland

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FPI

URBN Urban Outfitters (0.69)

PLBY PLBY (0.64)

RLX RLX Technology (0.64)

GTLS Chart Industries (0.63)

SNAP Snapchat (0.6)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FPI

EH EHang Holdings Ltd - (0.0)

TNK Teekay Tankers (0.0)

RIO Rio Tinto (0.0)

VIRT Virtu Financial (0.0)

NEP NextEra Energy (0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FPI

EOLS Evolus (-0.59)

FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (-0.6)

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.67)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.67)

HCA HCA Healthcare (-0.68)

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