AI FR Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bullish Case: Current implied volatility is elevated compared to historical norms, indicating a potential for an upward price adjustment as market sentiment may shift positively, especially with favorable economic indicators approaching.


Bearish Case: The historical return surface shows high probabilities of negative returns for short holding periods, suggesting potential downside risk if broader market conditions worsen or economic data disappoints.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth in industrial demand, 30%.

2. Stagnation due to economic uncertainty, 40%.

3. Positive earnings surprise boosting sentiment, 20%.

4. Significant downturn from interest rate hikes, 10%.


Trading Oracle: Consider a balanced approach using a short put credit spread (30/35 P) for October expiration to capitalize on potential range-bound trading. Given high IV, explore a long call debit spread (55/60 C) to benefit from upside movement without excessive risk. Maintain flexibility based on evolving market data.


September 28, 2024


First Industrial Realty Trust Forecast

FR        First Industrial Realty Trust











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FR



STAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STAG  STAG Industrial (0.92)


GENI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GENI  Genius Sports (0.91)


BXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXP  Boston Properties (0.9)


EFX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EFX  Equifax (0.9)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FR



SVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SVIX  VS Trust - 1x Short VIX Futures (0.0)


RICK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RICK  RCI Hospitality (-0.0)


MAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAG  MAG Silver (0.0)


CLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLF  Cleveland-Cliffs (-0.0)


NVAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVAX  Novavax (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FR



EQT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQT  EQT (-0.8)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.81)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.83)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.85)









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