TBF Forecast


Bullish Case: Bullish sentiment towards TBF is driven by rising Treasury yields, with expectations of sustained high interest rates. The increasing demand for inverse Treasury ETFs suggests potential for significant upside in TBF.


Bearish Case: On the flip side, if inflation stabilizes or declines, the Fed may pivot towards rate cuts, leading to decreased demand for TBF. Historical price volatility and implied volatility spikes indicate potential for substantial downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Fed continues raising rates (60% chance) - bullish for TBF.

2. Rates remain unchanged (30% chance) - neutral.

3. Rate cuts occur (10% chance) - bearish for TBF.

4. Geopolitical events destabilize markets (15% chance) - highly volatile TBF.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy using a debit spread, buying TBF 24.00 C and selling TBF 25.00 C, given high implied volatility and favorable conditions for rising rates. This presents a risk-reward profile with potential high probability of profit in coming months.


July 25, 2024


ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury Forecast

TBF      ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBF



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.02)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.3)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TBF



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.02)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.3)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.33)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBF



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.33)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.02)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.3)





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