FTEC Forecast


Bullish Case: FTEC's trending price action combined with an increase in call option volume suggests bullish sentiment. Historical return surface indicates high probability of positive return over holding periods.


Bearish Case: Market implied volatility remains above Helium model, suggesting possible overpricing. Apple’s struggles in key markets could impact sector performance negatively.


Potential Outcomes:

1. FTEC rallies by 5% (40%), driven by tech sector strength and favorable investor sentiment.

2. FTEC drops by 3% (30%) due to sector-specific headwinds, especially Apple’s performance.

3. FTEC remains flat (30%), reflecting mixed market signals.


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish 2-month call debit spreads (Helium Long Volatility), targeting $180 strike, to capitalize on positive sentiment and historical trends. High reward:risk ratio expected due to lower Helium implied volatility vs. market.


June 30, 2024


Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index Forecast

FTEC      Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FTEC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.87)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FTEC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.87)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FTEC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.87)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.32)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)





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