FUTU Forecast


Bullish Case: Futu's mean-reverting historical price action and current contango term structure signal stability and potential recovery, aided by increased digital finance adoption and low implied volatility.


Bearish Case: High current implied volatility, regulatory risks, and increased market competition pose significant downside risks as evidenced by heavy put volume and directional bearish activity.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased digital adoption drives growth (60%).

2. Regulatory pressure reduces profitability (25%).

3. Market competition limits growth (15%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate long call debit spreads targeting near-term expiries (2-3 months), particularly strikes close to current price ($65.54). Leverage moderate implied volatility and mean-reverting tendencies to maximize gain while minimizing risk.


June 30, 2024


Futu Forecast

FUTU      Futu











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FUTU



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.53)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FUTU



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FUTU



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.53)





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