GB Forecast


Bullish Case: GB sees accelerating recovery driven by Asian markets, Olympic enthusiasm, and blue ammonia growth prospects. Recent price actions and favorable market conditions could bolster investor confidence.


Bearish Case: Potential regulatory challenges, mean-reverting price action, and possible political distractions (e.g., news controversies) could undermine investor sentiment despite broader market strength.


Potential Outcomes: Olympics boost (+15%) from July-Aug, regulatory challenges (-10%) by Sep, blue ammonia gains (+20%) by year's end, news controversies (-5%) on short-term basis, continued mean reversion (-8%).


Trading Oracle: Deploy Helium Short Volatility strategies (credit spreads) on near-term options due to high implied volatilities. Focus on short strangles/straddles with a 30-60 day outlook. The high IV presents premium capture opportunities with hedged risk, yielding high profit probabilities from current mean-reverting trends.


July 20, 2024


Global Blue Forecast

GB      Global Blue











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GB



CIVI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CIVI  Civitas Resources Inc New (0.76)


OIH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OIH  VanEck Vectors Oil Services (0.72)


CELH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CELH  Celsius (0.71)


TH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TH  Target Hospitality Corp (0.7)


CDLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDLX  Cardlytics (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GB



JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.0)


ENPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENPH  Enphase Energy (0.0)


DHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHR  Danaher (0.0)


PAGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGP  Plains GP (-0.0)


SA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SA  Seabridge Gold (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GB



AMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMT  American Tower (-0.72)


PRLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRLB  Proto Labs (-0.74)


UA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UA  Under Armour (-0.74)


FOUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOUR  Shift4 Payments (-0.75)


FL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FL  Foot Locker (-0.78)





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