OIH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: OIH's 40.3% rise in two years, coupled with bullish risk 17% above bearish, suggests strong demand in oil services. Major institutional investments indicate positive sentiment.


Bearish Case: Term structure shows high volatility drop post July 2024. Previous predictions highlight regulatory risks and flat pricing, indicating market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes: Demand ↑(40%), Regulations ↓(30%), Market Neutral (20%), Unanticipated Shifts (10%). Analysis based on historical returns, Helium vs market IV, and major investment activity.


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish short vol: Sell $310 calls, buy $317.5 calls expiring in 5 days. Predict market further neutrality or decline. High POP: 76%, positive risk-reward, capitalize on high short-term IV.


July 10, 2024


VanEck Vectors Oil Services Forecast

OIH      VanEck Vectors Oil Services











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OIH



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.2)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OIH



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.2)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.34)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OIH



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.2)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)





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