Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A potential increase in soda ash prices due to rising global demand, combined with strong offshore pipeline revenue, could lead GEL to exceed $15 within the next six months, benefiting holders through robust returns.

Bearish Case: Persistent weak soda ash prices and elevated market volatility could press GEL prices below $10, as evidenced by high implied volatilities for lower strike prices and limited historical price spikes.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Price rebounds to $15 (60% chance).

2) Stagnation at current levels due to weak demand (25% chance).

3) Decline below $10 due to increased market volatility (15% chance).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish call debit spread targeting $15 strikes expiring December 2024, capitalizing on potential price rebounds while managing downside risk amid current high implied volatility. This approach offers favorable risk/reward dynamics and aligns with positive price forecasts.

November 12, 2024