CF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: CF's long-term fundamentals, robust demand for nitrogen fertilizers, and commitment to sustainability initiatives contribute to potential upside. Strong dividend yield supports investor confidence.


Bearish Case: Market uncertainties, significant insider trading disposals, and weak recent earnings suggest potential downside. High implied volatility indicates market concerns about CF's near-term performance.


Potential Outcomes: Upside driven by sustainability initiatives (35%). Downside due to earnings decline and insider selling (45%). Neutral outcomes influenced by mixed market signals (20%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish short volatility strategy targeting the $71-$73 strikes expiring in ~30 days. Leverage the high implied volatility and flat term structure to collect premium with an iron condor spread. Aggregate delta: -12.0; theta: -1.8. High edge and high probability of profit trade.


July 15, 2024


CF Industries Forecast

CF      CF Industries











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CF



OIH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OIH  VanEck Vectors Oil Services (0.59)


CVI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVI  CVR Energy (0.56)


LSCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LSCC  Lattice Semiconductor (0.56)


WOR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WOR  Worthington Industries (0.55)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (0.55)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CF



PRIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRIM  Primoris Services (-0.0)


GENI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GENI  Genius Sports (-0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.0)


BOIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOIL  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.0)


PFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PFE  Pfizer (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CF



FPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FPI  Farmland (-0.54)


AAPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAPL  Apple (-0.54)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.54)


PLNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLNT  Planet Fitness (-0.55)


NYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NYT  New York Times Co. (-0.65)





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