GOOG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: GOOG's robust AI growth signal competitive advantage, while strong return surfaces hint at sustained long-term returns. Implied volatility suggests investor optimism, driven by potential breakthroughs in AI monetization.


Bearish Case: Recent earnings disappointments and elevated spending raise concerns over profit margins. Regulatory scrutiny may stifle growth, while competition in AI threatens market share, indicating a potential downside risk as volatility lingers.


Potential Outcomes:

1. AI initiatives effectively monetize (60%);

2. Regulatory action stifles growth (20%);

3. Increased competition leads to market share loss (15%);

4. Economic downturn affects ad spend (5%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread with near-term options—buy $165 calls and sell $170 calls to leverage AI growth while managing risk. Aim for a 70% profit probability, targeting a 2-3 week horizon for maximum volatility benefit.


July 26, 2024


Alphabet Forecast

GOOG      Alphabet











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOOG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOOG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.86)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOOG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.86)





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