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Bullish Case: GRAB could benefit from rising demand in Southeast Asia, with significant growth potential in ride-hailing and food delivery, supported by recent partnerships. Improved revenue growth and reduced volatility could lead to a price rally.

Bearish Case: Operational challenges and macroeconomic pressures could hinder GRAB's performance. Persistent losses and high competition in the region, along with high implied volatility in options, may lead to further price declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Gradual price recovery (40%) due to regional growth.

2. Short-term decline (35%) from high volatility risks.

3. Unexpected partnership success (20%) boosting sentiment.

4. Regulatory challenges (5%) affecting operations.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy GRAB 01/2026 $3.50 calls and sell $4.00 calls. Risk is limited, leveraging positive market sentiment and potential price recovery. Alternatively, explore credit spreads for bearish positioning with current option volatility.

September 13, 2024