GUSH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Rising implied volatilities on long-dated calls and historical support at current levels could drive a bullish reversal.


Bearish Case: Consistent long-term price decline and negative AI forecasts suggest continued downside, supported by minimal historical correlation with positive returns.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of further decline amid sector weakness, 30% potential for recovery with stronger oil prices, 20% steady holding pattern as market digests current trends.


Trading Oracle: Short volatility strategy is alpha-rich given flat term structure: execute by selling $33 strike puts and buying $30 strike puts expiring in 1 month. High positive edge, leveraging historically low realized returns. Maximize risk-adjusted returns by playing for a steady decline or stabilization.


July 07, 2024


Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Forecast

GUSH      Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GUSH



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.16)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GUSH



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.16)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GUSH



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.16)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)





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