HDV Forecast


Bullish Case: HDV has a reasonable dividend yield, a diversified portfolio of blue-chip dividend stocks, and favorable historical performance over longer periods, suggesting potential for reliable income and steady growth [seekingalpha.com].


Bearish Case: HDV faces higher market implied volatility and a recent trend of slight negative performance, indicating short-term uncertainty and potential vulnerability to market fluctuations and macroeconomic conditions [Helium, Helium, Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market Stabilization (30%) - Steady/improving dividend yield, moderate growth, lower volatility.

2. Increased Volatility (40%) - High fluctuations due to economic uncertainty, median-term price decline.

3. Corrective Rally (20%) - Short-term price recovery driven by value investors.

4. Economic Downturn (10%) - Significant downward movement due to broader market pressures.


Trading Oracle: Sell Helium Short Volatility (credit spreads) across the board given the higher implied volatility, particularly focusing on strikes below $108. Current downtrend and historical volatility suggest profitable bearish strategies. Timeframe: Next 1-3 months. Focus on strikes around $100 and $98 for high reward-to-risk .


June 30, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core High Dividend Forecast

HDV      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core High Dividend











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HDV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.65)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HDV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.62)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.65)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HDV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.65)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.62)





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