HES Forecast


Bullish Case: Hess is leveraging Guyana production growth and a flat implied volatility term structure. Strong institutional investments support stability.


Bearish Case: Delays in Uaru project or geopolitical tensions in Guyana can negatively impact production and financials. High implied volatility suggest market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes: 65% Guyana success boosting shares, 25% geopolitical or project delays hurting financials, 10% neutral.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: Buy HES 09/20/2024 $160 C, Sell HES 09/20/2024 $170 C. Positive edge with current volatility and mean reverting price action offers high reward-to-risk outlook.


July 18, 2024


Hess Forecast

HES      Hess











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HES



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.81)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.11)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HES



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.11)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.13)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.81)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HES



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.81)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.01)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.11)





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