HGV Forecast


Bullish Case: HGV is undervalued with stable implied volatility and historical mean-reverting price action, suggesting potential for gains as market normalizes.


Bearish Case: Negative AI forecast and consistent downward pressure from insider sales suggest continued decline. Elevated near-term implied volatility indicates market skepticism.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of slight upswing due to undervaluation.

2. 45% chance of mean reversion limiting gains.

3. 25% chance of downward pressure from negative sentiment and insider sales.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread by selling $45 call and buying $50 call (exp. Oct 2024). Elevated near-term implied volatility suggests premium collection is profitable. Positioning for stable returns through time decay and volatility contraction with 85% probability of profit in the short term.


July 14, 2024


Hilton Grand Vacations Forecast

HGV      Hilton Grand Vacations











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HGV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HGV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HGV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.01)


HGV News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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