HLF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Notable insider buying suggests confidence in the undervalued shares. Improved fundamentals or positive market response could catalyze short-term gains.


Bearish Case: HLF has a long-term downtrend, unimpressive financial metrics, and high volatility. Potential downward pressures remain significant amid historical weak returns.


Potential Outcomes: 45% chance trades sideways $11-$13 near-term. 35% chance declines to $10 or below. 20% chance rebounds to $14+ if positive catalysts emerge.


Trading Oracle: Given high IV, utilize a bearish strategy via debit spreads. Buy Aug $12.5 Puts, Sell Aug $10 Puts. Favorable reward-to-risk ratio with slightly negative IV. Time outlook: 1 month. High potential due to mean reversion and low bullish probability.


July 20, 2024


Herbalife Nutrition Forecast

HLF      Herbalife Nutrition











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HLF



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.81)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.42)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HLF



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.42)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.68)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.81)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HLF



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.81)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.42)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.68)





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