HOLI Forecast


Bullish Case: A successful execution of the go-private transaction at $26.50 could drive HOLI shares significantly higher, given the current undervaluation and activist interest, coupled with a potential rebound in China's industrial sector.


Bearish Case: Regulatory hurdles and continued market weaknesses in China could delay or derail the go-private offer, leading to increased uncertainty and potential downside risks for HOLI shares amidst any negative sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Go-private deal closure (40%);

2) Prolonged regulatory delays (30%);

3) M&A activity reigniting (20%);

4) Persistent mean-reverting price actions (10%). Prospect of further downside if the deal collapses.


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July 25, 2024


Hollysys Automation Forecast

HOLI      Hollysys Automation











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HOLI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.28)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.33)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HOLI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.28)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.33)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HOLI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.39)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.28)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.33)





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