HUM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong growth in medicare advantage enrollment and strategic partnerships position Humana for recovery, enhanced by consistent healthcare demand from an aging population.


Bearish Case: Rising medical costs, regulatory pressures, and ongoing lawsuits may continue to strain Humana's profitability, leading to bearish sentiment in the short term.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Q3 results exceed expectations (70%).

2. Regulatory scrutiny nearing (50%).

3. Continued MA membership growth offsets costs (60%).

4. Loss from Medicare clawbacks (40%).

5. Negative effects from competition surge (30%).


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July 25, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HUM



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.57)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HUM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.86)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HUM



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.57)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.86)





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