IAI Forecast


Bullish Case: IAI's recent $1bn satellite deal with Morocco enhances its revenue outlook. Historical returns show strong performance over 1-2 year horizons, suggesting potential upside as market sentiment improves amid geopolitical dynamics.


Bearish Case: The recent flat price action indicates a lack of momentum, and elevated implied volatility suggests heightened market uncertainty. This could lead to profit-taking or pessimism impacting IAI's near-term performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% - Modest growth due to recent deals boosting investor confidence.

2. 30% - Continued flat performance from market hesitance.

3. 20% - Decline if geopolitical tensions escalate or volatility rises unexpectedly.


Trading Oracle: Implement a debit spread strategy by buying July 2024 $120 calls and selling $130 calls to capitalize on potential bullish movements, while mitigating costs against market volatility. This setup provides a favorable risk-reward profile given current market conditions.


July 24, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers Forecast

IAI      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IAI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IAI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IAI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)





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