IBP Forecast


Bullish Case: IBP is positioned for growth due to robust institutional investment and attractive valuation metrics. Strong historical returns coupled with high implied volatility suggest potential for significant upward movement, particularly in upcoming earnings calls.


Bearish Case: Insider selling and recent price stagnation raise concerns about overvaluation. Additionally, possible economic downturns could lead to reduced demand for building products, negatively affecting IBP's market position.


Potential Outcomes:

1. (50%) Continued upward trajectory driven by strong institutional support.

2. (30%) Price correction due to overvaluation concerns.

3. (15%) Price stability within a narrow range due to low volatility.

4. (5%) Unforeseen market shocks leading to significant downturn.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish strategy by purchasing IBP 08/16/2024 250.00 Calls (implied volatility at 54.6) while simultaneously selling 240.00 Calls. This debit spread takes advantage of the upside potential while limiting risk, targeting moderate price increases with a high reward-to-risk ratio.


July 25, 2024


Installed Building Products Forecast

IBP      Installed Building Products











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IBP



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.53)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IBP



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.53)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IBP



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.53)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.61)





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