Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Investor confidence may rebound due to Icahn’s strategic moves, notably restructuring and shareholder engagement which could spark a resurgence in stock performance.

Bearish Case: Continued legal challenges and a focus on cost-cutting amid financial strain could keep IEP under pressure, leading to further declines in value.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery driven by Icahn's restructuring: 30% chance
2. Legal challenges cause further price drops: 40% chance
3. Stagnation with mild fluctuations: 30% chance

Trading Oracle: Given the increased implied volatility around the options expiration dates, consider a bearish credit spread by selling $12.5 calls and buying $15 calls. This takes advantage of potential stagnation while maintaining a risk-mitigated position. Aim for short-duration trades as market conditions suggest mixed movements with probabilities favoring bearish performance at this juncture.

November 30, 2024