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IEP Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: The recent increase in call option volume suggests optimism and potential for strategic restructuring by Icahn, possibly boosting IEP's price.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty about IEP's future, coupled with ongoing legal challenges and declining historical returns, signaling potential downside risk.



Potential Outcomes: IEP recovery due to activist restructuring (25%), persistent legal challenges hindering progress (40%), continued stagnation (35%).



Trading Oracle: Utilize a Bullish Long Volatility strategy by buying $12.5 calls and selling $20 calls. This capitalizes on call volume surge and possible restructuring upside: Bullish Long Volatility.


March 05, 2025


Icahn Forecast

IEP        Icahn

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