IEP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Helium implied volatility exceeds market volatility, suggesting market underestimation of potential upside in IEP, coupled with Icahn's reputation for strategic investments.


Bearish Case: IEP’s historical mean-reverting price pattern and flat term structure imply limited upside. Overwhelming uncertainty and legal pressures from past allegations may hinder recovery.


Potential Outcomes: Recovery from Hindenburg allegations (20%), significant downturn due to legal challenges (40%), continued stagnation (40%). These predictions consider stock's historical and volatility trends.


Trading Oracle: Deploy IEP bearish short volatility strategy. Sell call credit spreads with a 70-day expiration between $17.5 and $20 strikes. Benefit from expected price stagnation and high probability of profit with 82% Helium model success.


July 14, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IEP



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.12)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.48)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IEP



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.12)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.6)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IEP



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.12)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.48)





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